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Security of Supply and the SuperSmart Grid

Often, the argument is heard that Europe should not increase its energy import dependency, and especially not from unstable regions like the North Africa.  Fact is, however, that European import dependency is already very high and increasing, with Russia being the most important source. Recent events have shown that not only Russian-European relations are important, but that the transit countries Ukraine and Belarus also have a large impact on European energy supply. As reality has shown in the last years, European energy supply is already at risk, and the relevant question is whether imports of significant amounts of renewable electricity from North Africa are more or less risky than importing similar amounts of gas from Russia.

In order to assess this, we have started a study to quantify the yearly risk of non-delivery for at least 24 hours due to political reasons - be it deliberate government action or internal instability - for a scenario with significant amounts of power plant fuel (gas) from Russia and for a scenario with significant amount of renewable electricity from the five North African countries. If you wish to participate in the questionnaire presented here, please contact johan[at)supersmartgrid.net.

The OECD assesses the political risk for most countries, and publishes the results on a likert scale 0 (best) - 7 (worst). Based on this assessment, the national export credit insurers set risk premiums for their export credit insurances. These premiums express the probability of non-payment due to political reasons of an export credit to the country in question. The OECD risk classification end 2008/beginning 2009 and corresponding risk premiums for Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Russia, Ukraine and Belarus:

These probabilities do not refer explicitly to electricity exports, but nonetheless give a first estimation of the risk of a country. When answering the question below, we ask you to consider the information provided below, your own knowledge and experiences and also the question whether electricity exports are more or less, or equally, probable to be interrupted as payments for other kinds of exports. 

The OECD index shows medium/long-term political risk, which aggregates a number of hard and soft factors, such as payment experience and political stability. Other indicators with a similar or lower aggregation level, however, show a different and not as clear picture. By hovering over the indicator name, a short description of each indicator will appear.

Risk of expropriation and government action (ONDD)

 

Global competitiveness index (World economic forum)

 

 

Worldwide governance indicators – Political stability and absence of violence(World Bank)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Based on this new input, and on your personal knowledge about the countries involved and energy imports/exports, how would you update the non-delivery probabilities as expressed in the table above?

 

Morocco         low [    ]%     high [    ]%

Algeria          low [    ]%     high [    ]%

Tunisia          low [    ]%     high [    ]%

Libya            low [    ]%     high [    ]%

Egypt            low [    ]%     high [    ]%

Russia           low [    ]%     high [    ]%

Ukraine          low [    ]%     high [    ]%

Belarus          low [    ]%     high [    ]%

 

 

 

 

 

Survey Results: Preliminary Stakeholder Perception Survey Conducted at the Hannover Fair 2008

In 2008, we conducted a short survey about the potential benefits, barriers, and next necessary steps related to implementing an SSG  at the DESERTEC forum “10 000 Gigawatts” at the Hannover Fair 2008 in Hannover, Germany. Results from the survey are available online.

 

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